Bitcoin’s price held in its trading range over the weekend as initial United States military action in Iran caused a brief market dip before prices recovered, according to QCP Capital.
Bitcoin dropped to $63,000 and Ethereum fell to $1,910 before retracing upward to previous levels, the firm notes.
The geopolitical escalation triggered $300 million in long position liquidations, with QCP Capital characterizing this as a contained selloff compared to the $2.5 billion in leveraged longs wiped out during early February. This modest selling volume suggests traders had already lightened their positions in preceding weeks.
Front-end implied volatility struggled to maintain levels above 60, despite a brief one-day spike to 93%. Options traders loaded up on upside contracts expiring March 27, 2026. These buyers targeted the $74,000 and $75,000 strike prices in anticipation of a March rebound.
QCP Capital compared the current market environment to a similar strike on Iran in June 2025. Bitcoin temporarily fell below $100,000 during that weekend event before rallying to $123,000 weeks later.
The Trump administration indicated the military campaign would be limited to “four weeks or so” to avoid a protracted war ahead of midterm elections. Previous uncertainty regarding a conflict with Iran and Federal Reserve nominations coincided with a dip of bitcoin’s price below $70,000 in early February. The market experienced a “double-barrel” blow to sentiment from macro fears and shifting monetary policy during that period, QCP notes.
QCP Capital maintains a cautious stance as the early-stage conflict could expand into a regional war.
