Bitwise (NYSE: BITW) Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan joined the Blockspace Podcast Thursday to discuss the current Bitcoin bear market, and whether Bitcoin will actually catch a bid from the so-called gold “debasement trade.”
Hougan suggested that the crypto winter could find its bottom by Q2 2026 as institutional interest begins to outweigh retail exhaustion. He argues that while gold recently surged due to central bank buying following the seizure of Russian treasury assets, Bitcoin catching the debasement trade “hasn’t yet begun.”
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Bitcoin volatility and the institutional divide
For Bitcoin, there’s a divergence between steady institutional bidding and retail exhaustion. Hougan noted that while major assets have held some ground, newer altcoins such as Sui and Aptos fell 70 percent or more during 2025. And while some thought Trumps’ presidency hallmarked the beginning of a golden bull run, the reality was the beginning of a bear market.
The only winning cryptocurrency in 2025, Hougan said, was Bitcoin. Since October, Bitcoin has joined its fellow crypto-assets in a bearish downtrend.
Gold’s surge driven by central banks not debasement
Hougan says the recent surge in gold was not a result of investors fleeing fiat debasement but rather a massive shift in central bank reserves.
After the U.S. seized Russian assets, central banks globally sought exposure to non-fiat assets, exhausting the gold supply and driving prices to new heights.
Hougan argues that Bitcoin will eventually serve this role as digital gold, but it has not yet benefitted from the same urgency that drove central banks toward physical gold.
Hougan also argued that the recently announced Fed chair Kevin Warsh appoitment is a bullish sign for Bitcoin, and that the market largely oversold on the news.
Despite sentiment, Hougan remains bullish on Bitcoin in the near term, expecting a return to higher prices later in 2026.
