Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) released its 2026 crypto market outlook in December, detailing a year where bitcoin solidified its position as a safe haven asset.
The report outlines how regulatory developments and macroeconomic shifts defined the asset class throughout 2025. Bitcoin reached new all-time highs exceeding $120,000 late in the year following significant political and state-level adoption events.
Coinbase noted that bitcoin volatility is no longer an outlier among investment assets and is now comparable to major high-growth technology stocks.
The 90-day historical volatility for the token hovered near 35% to 40% by the end of the year. This metric places bitcoin volatility on par with equities such as Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), according to Coinbase.
This influx of capital from larger players now exerts greater influence on price action than bitcoin miner selling pressure. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have attracted net inflows of $58 billion since their inception.
Coinbase analysts argue the economic relevance of the halving is “somewhat specious” given the limited sample size of four recorded events.
The report suggests historical price movements often coincided with exogenous factors like global liquidity changes or interest rate adjustments. New demand drivers from regulated exchanges and investment vehicles make these historical frameworks less effective for predicting future performance.
Significant political milestones impacted price action throughout 2025. The announcement of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in March and the passage of the GENIUS Act in July served as key catalysts. The state of Texas purchased bitcoin later in the year, coinciding with the asset reaching peak valuations above $120,000.
The outlook also addresses long-term security concerns regarding quantum computing.
Approximately 6.51 million bitcoin, or 32.7% of the total supply, remains vulnerable to long-range quantum attacks due to address reuse and legacy script types. Vulnerable outputs include Pay-to-Public-Key and bare multisig formats.
BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) highlighted these risks in an amended prospectus for its iShares Bitcoin Trust in May 2025.
Technical proposals to mitigate these risks include new quantum-resistant signature protocols and software updates. A potential migration to post-quantum cryptography could take up to seven years to fully implement.
