JonesTrading’s market intelligence arm, JonesResearch, has re-issued its ‘Hold’ rating for Bitcoin mining giant MARA (NASDAQ: MARA), noting missed expectations for third quarter earnings as higher operating costs weighed on margins.
The bitcoin miner and digital infrastructure company reported third-quarter revenue of $252.4 million, up 6% from the prior quarter and above JonesResearch’s $246.1 million estimate. However, EBITDA came in at $51.0 million, below the firm’s $83.7 million projection, as general and administrative and research expenses rose 17.5% sequentially to $57.9 million.
Gross margin was 42.5%, short of the estimated 52.7%, reflecting a higher-than-expected hash cost of $0.031 per terahash compared with the firm’s $0.027 forecast. Jones-defined operating income showed a loss of $158.0 million, wider than the anticipated $111.8 million loss. MARA’s management reported adjusted EBITDA of $395.6 million, primarily due to a $343.1 million unrealized gain on bitcoin holdings.
JonesResearch lowered its 2025 and 2026 EBITDA estimates for MARA to $214 million and $376 million, respectively, from prior forecasts of $269 million and $407 million. The revision accounts for higher operating costs and a lower projected hash price of $0.050 per terahash per day in the fourth quarter.
Jones sees the company’s pending acquisition of a 64% stake in French cloud operator Exaion and a partnership under a letter of intent with MPLX LP as critical to MARA’s new strategy. Exaion would contribute software and compliance capabilities, while the MPLX partnership would provide access to natural gas resources to power modular data centers in the Delaware Basin. Initial capacity is planned at 400 megawatts, with potential expansion to 1.5 gigawatts.
The first power plants under MARA’s MPLX partnership are not expected until 2027. MPLX Chief Executive Maryann Mannen confirmed on the company’s earnings call that the project will not begin before 2026.
The research firm noted that competition in the sovereign and private AI cloud market is high, with established providers such as Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure expanding into compliant cloud services. Emerging firms including CoreWeave are also targeting regulated industries.
Despite the challenges, the report said MARA’s ability to pivot between bitcoin mining and AI infrastructure, and its potential to colocate data centers alongside owned natural gas plants, provides some flexibility for executing its new strategy.
