JonesResearch downgraded IREN to a Hold rating following the company’s August 28 CQ2:F25 earnings report, citing balanced valuation after a 170% year-to-date stock run and 400% gain from April lows.
IREN reported Q4:F25 revenue of $187.3 million, which was broadly in line with JonesResearch’s $186.7 million forecast. Gross margin was 72.6%, below the 74.6% estimate. The analyst firm noted that reported adjusted EBITDA of $121.9 million was inflated by a $19.7 million release of a GST loss contingency and a $20 million litigation provision add-back, preferring a calculation based on revenue less cash cost of revenue and SG&A, which yielded $101.4 million of EBITDA.
JonesResearch raised its 2026 revenue and EBITDA forecasts to $1.1 billion and $664 million respectively, driven by planned expansion to 20,000 GPUs at Prince George. However, it expressed concern over the sustainability of IREN’s AI cloud momentum, highlighting potential erosion of supply-side advantages as GPU supply catches up with demand and warns that IREN’s white-label bare-metal model may prove transitory without meaningful software differentiation.
JonesResearch also questioned the shift away from multi-tenant colocation, noting that hyperscaler customers negotiate tough terms and that IREN’s focus on its own cloud growth may reduce prospects for third-party leases. They warned that the company could be trading one capital-intensive “treadmill” in mining for another in AI infrastructure, and flagged dilution risks from further at-the-market equity issuances to fund GPU deployments.
JonesResearch values IREN at 9.4x–11.7x EV/EBITDA and 18.0x–29.0x EV/adjusted EBIT on 2026 estimates, compared with CoreWeave’s 7.1x and 22.5x multiples, respectively. Given these metrics and the uncertainties around long-term competitive positioning in AI cloud, the firm recommends pausing new positions until clearer evidence of durable advantages emerges.
Jones’ ratings downgrade comes a week after IREN reported growing its GPU fleet to 8,500 Nvidia Blackwell units and securing a $102 million in financing. In its earnings release, IREN announced plans to grow the fleet to 10,900 GPUs by year end.
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At time of publication, IREN is up 0.9% during pre-market hours.
