JonesResearch reiterated a buy rating on TeraWulf (NASDAQ: WULF), maintaining a $12 price target as the firm updated estimates to reflect the 160 MW net Fluidstack expansion and a $1 billion convertible offering.
Shares of WULF have climbed 62% year-to-date and 309% since their April lows, a rally JonesResearch attributes to growing HPC hosting momentum and renewed capital markets support.
Jones trimmed 2025 EBITDA to $34 million and 2026 to $118 million, citing higher operating costs, but raised 2027 EBITDA from $377 million to $547 million, driven by the full commissioning of Fluidstack’s capacity and CB-5, implying a 116% three-year CAGR.
JonesResearch’s valuation applies a 19.6x EV/EBITDA multiple on the updated 2027 forecast, based on a pro-forma share count of 517.9 million. The note highlights $5.3 billion of total debt—comprising $500 million of 2030 converts, $1 billion of 2031 converts, and $3.8 billion of Fluidstack project financing—and it assumes no further share buybacks despite $200 million of authorization remaining.
JonesResearch models TeraWulf’s 522.5 MW of AI agreements with Core42 and Fluidstack at a 6% cap rate, implying equity value of $9.07 per share, and the research notes that a re-rating to a 5% cap rate—driven TeraWulf delivering its AI data centers, securing financing, and growing AI-driven data center demand—would support a stock price north of $12.80.
JonesResearch points to a “deals beget deals” dynamic as the Core42 and Fluidstack wins bolster TeraWulf’s profile, paving the way for further HPC hosting agreements at Lake Mariner, the upcoming Cayuga Lake lease and potential sites in Montana, Maryland and Virginia.
Read More: Google Ups TeraWulf Stake, MSTR’s New Stock Guidance, Kanye’s Memecoin
At time of publication, WULF is down 2.4% during pre-market hours.
