JonesResearch initiated coverage of Bitdeer (BTDR) on October 6 with a Buy rating and a $32 price target, applying a 20x EV/EBITDA multiple to its 2026 EBITDA estimate of $435.5 million. Jones argues that this multiple not only aligns with hybrid miner peers but also modestly rewards Bitdeer’s expected leadership in HPC hosting, setting the stage for upside if colocation deals materialize.
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Jones highlighted Bitdeer’s vertically integrated model—designing, manufacturing and deploying its Sealminer rigs—which should drive self-mining gross margins lower from a hashcost of $0.037/TH today toward fleet efficiencies of 14.2 J/TH by end-2027. Meanwhile, external Sealminer sales, conservatively modeled at 19 EH/s in 2026 and 32 EH/s in 2027, represent a call option-like opportunity should Bitdeer capture share in the $3 billion–$5 billion ASIC hardware market. JonesResearch states: “Among new entrants (including Auradine and Block), Bitdeer appears best positioned to capture share from Bitmain.”
Bitdeer trades at just 6.8–10.6x EV/EBITDA on 2026 estimates, using a $0.045–$0.055/TH hashprice range, well below the coverage universe’s 18.3–28.7x median. The report points to substantial unrecognized value in two AI/HPC colocation assets: the 570 MW Clarington, Ohio site, valued at $26.64–$36.46 per share under full-economics ownership; and the 309 MW Norwegian portfolio, worth $14.44–$19.77 per share.
Key catalysts include closing colocation leases at Clarington and Norway and the planned release of the next-generation Sealminer A4-2 rig targeting 5.5–6.0 J/TH efficiency in late 2026. Risks center on energy-cost volatility, equity dilution via ATM issuances, and related-party custody exposures with Matrixport, but JonesResearch believes these are outweighed by the company’s underappreciated growth drivers.
Read More: Trading the AI/HPC Sector, Bitdeer’s ASIC, Bitcoin’s Parabolic Hashrate w/Pennyether
At time of publication, BTDR is up 4.3% during pre-market hours.
