JonesResearch reiterated its Hold rating on Cipher Mining (CIFR) in an October 1 research report, attributing the stance to valuation levels that already reflect anticipated HPC colocation deals and uncertain pipeline prospects.
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The report adjusted Cipher’s revenue forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to $387 million and $170 million, and EBITDA forecasts $591 million and $256 million. The changes were due to the recent 168 MW Fluidstack lease at Barber Lake. JonesResearch valued the 244 MW gross Fluidstack lease at between $2.44 billion and $3.27 billion, equivalent to $5.86–$7.83 per share on a pro forma basis which included Google’s 24.2 million warrants backing the $1.4 billion commitment.
The firm noted that a recent $1.3 billion convertible debt offering and a proposed $1.7 billion construction loan should fully cover the capital expenditure for remaining Barber Lake and Black Pearl Phase 2 expansions, implying that those deals are largely priced in. As such, Cipher trades at 29.3x–41.2x 2026 EV/EBITDA and 17.8x–27.4x 2027 EV/EBITDA under base-case hashprice assumptions of $0.045–$0.055/TH and $0.035–$0.055/TH, respectively.
JonesResearch expressed skepticism regarding the value of additional HPC pipeline assets—namely Stingray, Reveille, and three smaller sites—citing limited visibility on future deals and persistently declining bitcoin hashprices through each halving cycle. The report highlighted that while Google’s $1.4 billion backstop lends credibility, deployment timing and geography for further TPU-powered colocation remain uncertain.
Because Cipher carries a Hold rating, JonesResearch does not assign a formal 12-month price target. Instead, the analysis focused on valuation multiples and sum-of-the-parts outcomes, concluding that the stock’s current market price already incorporates expected near-term project economics and leaves limited upside.
At time of publication, CIFR is up 1.1% from yesterday’s close.
