JonesResearch upgraded Riot Platforms (RIOT) to a Buy rating, boosting its price target to $18 from a prior Hold following a 13% pullback after Q2 results and insights gathered during a recent San Francisco non-deal roadshow. At the August 6 closing price of $11.66, the new target implies roughly 55% upside.
JonesResearch cited strengthened confidence in Riot’s ability to secure a HPC lease at its Corsicana site, where an additional 600 MW of power capacity benefits from pre-SB6 grandfathered status under evolving Texas regulations. While some HPC premium—reflecting market expectations of an initial ~150 MW deal—is already priced in, JonesResearch argues that even a smaller 100 MW agreement would act as a catalyst for the broader 600 MW opportunity.
In its sum-of-the-parts valuation, JonesResearch assigns the Corsicana 600 MW build-to-suit lease an equity value of $4.11 billion–$6.71 billion (equivalent to $11.13–$18.16 per share), assuming a 12-year lease with 75% EBITDA margins and 15x–20x EV/EBITDA multiples. The mining business is valued at a 6.0x EV/EBITDA multiple on a blended 2025–26 EBITDA forecast of $161 million, supporting the overall $18 price target.
Operational improvements also underpinned the upgrade: Riot’s average mining uptime rose to 86.4% from October 2024 through July 2025, versus 67.9% from January 2022 to September 2024, and management expects further SG&A leverage and lower litigation expenses in H2 2025. With the Corsicana basis of design slated for completion by Q3 2025 and a lease possible by year-end or early 2026, JonesResearch views the risk/reward as attractive entering the next phase of execution.
Jones’ Buy rating comes about a week after JP Morgan downgraded hybrid miners, including IREN and RIOT, arguing that the valuations were “stretched” given long sales cycles and uncertain deal timelines.
Read More: Riot mines 484 bitcoin in July amid 160% surge in power credits
At time of publication, RIOT is up 1.7% from yesterday’s close.
