Galaxy Digital (NASDAQ: GLXY) is expected to report a decline in fourth-quarter results following a strong third quarter, according to a Rosenblatt Securities report released Friday. The firm maintained a buy rating and a $46 price target while highlighting Galaxy’s strategic shift toward AI/HPC.
Rosenblatt expects revenue to exceed consensus estimates, but the bank noted that Galaxy will have difficulty exceeding revenue from the prior quarter, when Galaxy brokered a one-time $9 billion bitcoin transaction in July.
Rosenblatt updated its financial estimates to include net gains from operations and impairment losses. The firm projects Galaxy to report a 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $386.7 million. Looking ahead, the analyst forecasts 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $169.8 million and 2027 adjusted EBITDA of $648.7 million.
The $46 price target is based on a multiple of 28 times the firm’s 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimate.
The bank expects Galaxy’s data center business segment to regain focus as a primary narrative driver for the company. Galaxy’s Helios campus recently received regulatory approval for an additional 830 MW of power, bringing its total approved capacity to approximately 1.6 GW. Rosenblatt views this capacity as a key catalyst that enhances optionality for AI infrastructure demand.
Gaming out possibilities to another of Galaxy’s other primary business lines, crypto financial services, Rosenblatt notes that sector-wide crypto trading activity decelerated throughout the quarter after a strong start. Average daily crypto trading volume increased 9% in October before falling 16% in November and dropping 34% in December. Rosenblatt estimates total cryptocurrency market volumes declined approximately 15% quarter-over-quarter.
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Galaxy blockchain rewards revenue segment – Galaxy’s staking and mining rewards – is projected to rebound 22% to $63.7 million. Rosenblatt attributes this anticipated growth to a 110% increase in staked assets, which rose to $6.6 billion during the period and could help offset lower average asset prices and reduced activity on the Solana network.
Rosenblatt expects Galaxy’s fee income segment to decline to approximately $26.7 million, down from $104.3 million in the third quarter. The drop reflects a normalization of activity following an IPO-related engagement in the prior period. Despite this projection, Rosenblatt expects Galaxy’s fee income to remain roughly 57% higher than levels seen in the second quarter of 2025.
Header image by Graham Holtshausen via Unsplash.
