TD Cowen has maintained its $440 price target for shares of Bitcoin treasury play Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) in its newest investor note, written by analyst Lance Vitanza. The figure implies a 170% upside from the January 21 share price of $162.
Strategy raised $1.25 billion in early January to acquire an additional 13,627 bitcoins. The company accelerated its accumulation strategy during the recent price dip rather than slowing down.
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TD Cowen views the recent slump in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices as a temporary depression. The report noted that Strategy utilized this period to lower its average cost basis.
As of the report, the company held 687,410 bitcoins. The year-to-date cryptocurrency yield stood at 0.1% following a 74.3% yield in 2024. As of this week, they hold over 700,000 bitcoin.
The $440 price target relies on a 5x multiple of projected 2026 Bitcoin value gains rather than traditional software earnings. The model assumes Bitcoin recovers to approximately $177,000 by December 2026.
TD Cowen projects a cryptocurrency yield of 7.1% for 2026. This estimate represents a decrease from prior forecasts due to higher equity issuance.
BTC yield, defined by Strategy, primarily refers to Strategy’s unique KPI measuring the percentage increase of Bitcoin held per diluted share over time, reflecting their goal of buying Bitcoin with capital raised by issuing stock
The treasury operation is expected to generate $6.315 billion in value for shareholders in 2026. The valuation model assumes the company will accelerate Bitcoin acquisition in the second half of the year as prices rise.
Higher Bitcoin prices are expected to drive both the premium and the yield higher. The report highlights opportunities across the company’s capital structure, specifically within its five tranches of preferred stock.
Senior preferred shares trade at a discount and offer a 9.6% implied yield. Vitanza identified capital appreciation potential if yields compress to 7.6%.
Risks to the valuation include the recent decision by Morgan Stanley Capital International, a financial market ETF provider, to pause the inclusion of public Bitcoin treasury companies in its indices. TD Cowen suspects this pause stems from pressure from large clients who sell competing spot Bitcoin ETFs.
“We worry that the BlackRocks of the world mistakenly view PBTCs like Strategy as competitors and thus ‘bad for business’. While such a belief would in our opinion be misplaced, it would be hard for MSCI to resist entreaties from its customer base.” The report noted.
The valuation remains highly correlated to volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Any regulatory crackdown or prolonged market downturn poses a threat to the price target, TD Cowen said in the report
