Core Scientific (CORZ) shares have slipped nearly 27% since the announced merger with AI neocloud CoreWeave (CRWV). Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to run, breaking about $118,000 in a new all time high, as of Friday.
So what gives? Typically, we’d expect a firm like Core Scientific to see a significant run with Bitcoin prices, as have peer Bitcoin miners like MARA (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and CleanSpark (CLSK), which have seen gains between 2–5% since July 3. Moreover, the all-stock deal between the two firms represented a value of “$20.40 per share value based on the closing price of CoreWeave Class A common stock as of July 3, 2025.”
So again, why are we dipping?
We won’t know the final acquisition price until the deal closes in Q4 2025. But in the meantime, the CORZ spot price and the CRWV options market may help us divine a close guess for our question. To understand why, we must consider the market dynamics of traders face when arbitraging this acquisition, specifically deal uncertainty and forward pricing.
Under the terms of the agreement, Core Scientific shareholders will receive 0.1235 shares of CoreWeave Class A common stock for each Core Scientific share held, implying a fixed equity value of approximately $9.0 billion and a per-share valuation of $20.40 based on CoreWeave’s five-day volume-weighted average price as of July 3.
However, this price rests entirely on the future share price of CoreWeave and the deal closing in the Q4 2025. Traders can calculate an implied “forward price” for CRWV by constructing a synthetic position using CRWV options expiring in December.
Buying a CRWV call and selling a put at $150 strike price gives the trader a $40 credit and a synthetic long position in CRWV through Q4 when the deal should close. This means CRWV must fall $40 below $150 to make the position break even, putting the implied forward price at $110 per share.
When using CRWV’s $110 forward share price, 1 CORZ share would only be: 0.1235 * $110 = $13.58. This is much closer to the market’s current price for CORZ, so it could be that traders are pricing in CRWV’s implied forward price for December into their valuation for CORZ.
However, this new CORZ price which is derived from CRWV’s implied forward price also assumes that there is no chance of deal failure. So we might conclude that the combination of a heavily discounted implied forward price and deal uncertainty has contributed to the 26% drop in CORZ since the announcement.
Furthermore, CoreWeave seems intent on closing the deal quickly and being disciplined with costs, while Core Scientific management seems to want a swift payout (as noted by the immediate vesting of equity-based compensation for CORZ executives. The absence of any explicit price protection or top-up mechanisms in the merger agreement suggests that both sides prioritized closing certainty over additional upside for Core Scientific shareholders. That dynamic is further placing pressure on Core Scientific’s stock price.
Market participants also note that Core Scientific effectively surrendered its standalone growth ambitions when it agreed to the buyout, ambitions which included 300-400 MW. While CoreWeave gains more than 1.3 GW of power capacity and over $500 million in annual run-rate cost savings by eliminating lease overhead, Core Scientific shareholders now own a minority stake in CoreWeave with limited options to capture the value of future expansion directly.
As the deal approaches its expected close in Q4 2025, Core Scientific’s stock should gradually narrow the basis and approach CoreWeave spot price multiplied by 0.1235, provided the merger remains on track and funding conditions hold.
For investors confident in the transaction’s completion and bullish on CoreWeave’s post-merger growth trajectory, the current pullback potentially offers a discounted way to gain exposure to the combined company. However, until closing risks and implied forward prices become straightened out, CORZ is likely to trade below the headline $20.40 figure.
