Institutions are already impacting global demand for Bitcoin — but this report from UTXO Management shows that there could be (yes, we’re going to say it) a “Wall of Money” coming in 2026.
“Forecasting Institutional Flows to Bitcoin in 2025/26” argues that spot-ETF demand is just the opening salvo. The report is so bullish that it’s got us wanting to tweet 🚨🚨MASSIVE BULLISH NEWS 🚨🚨– but we’ll save the Twitter-bait news flashes for the influenceooors.
Here are a few of our favorite highlights from the report.
Bitcoin ETFs > gold ETFs
Year-one bitcoin ETF inflows came in at a record-breaking $36.2 billion, eclipsing every commodity-ETF launch on record, and the authors draw a straight line to the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) precedent: if the pattern holds, annual net flows could increase to $65 billion by 2026 and over $100 billion in 2027. The chart below tells the story (2027 estimate not included):
Source: Bitwise Asset Management and Newhedge.
The bitcoinETFs were just the beginning
While bitcoin ETFs are the headline grabber, they’re just one piece of the $427 billion forecasts in new buy-side demand by the end of 2026, equivalent to 4.27 million BTC or nearly 20% of current circulating supply. The base-case modelling is built on five key drivers:
- Wealth Platforms: A 0.5% Bitcoin allocation across $60 trillion in managed assets could yield $120B in flows.
- Corporate Treasuries: Public companies following the Saylor playbook are projected to absorb 1.18M BTC under FASB’s mark-to-market rules.
- Nation-States: The U.S. Strategic Reserve sets the tone for up to 5% gold-reserve rotation into BTC, with four new nations expected to follow.
- State Governments: 13 U.S. states have live Bitcoin reserve bills; the report expects five to pass by 2026.
- ETFs: With wirehouse access and model portfolio inclusion, bitcoin ETFs are poised to outdo gold’s trajectory
Corporate balance sheets in particular show how fast the landscape is evolving. By the end of 2024, public companies controlled over 603,000 BTC (and 803,143 at the time of publication), and the removal of impairment accounting now allows companies to book upside. Metaplanet (Japan), GameStop (U.S.), and Moon (Hong Kong) are early examples of the same “Bitcoin Standard” strategy—using BTC to offset declining fiat value and improve financial optics.
Sovereign and state adoption is also accelerating. The U.S. government now effectively holds 198k BTC off-market and could consider a 1 million-BTC strategic reserve if Senator Lummis’ BITCOIN Act passes. Globally, the report forecasts a wave of adoption from energy-rich, dollar-wary countries. Even if only a fraction of their gold holdings are rotated, the impact on bitcoin’s float would be significant.
On the yield front, the report makes a strong case that Bitcoin-native DeF or “BTCfi” will become the next area of focus. Institutions flush with BTC need yield and we already see a robust offering from protocols in this category. Liquid staking has quietly surged to 55k BTC locked in just a year, as shown below:
Beyond staking, bitcoin holders have other avenues to earn income on their stack:
- Roll-up Bridges offer yield from transaction and exit fees.
- Basis Trades via futures and options give delta-neutral returns (2–15%).
- Smart Contract Protocols like Babylon and LBTC aim to provide staking wrappers for non-custodial yield.
Each of these options builds toward a future where BTC not only stores value but compounds it. Yield paid in BTC increases sat balances and fiat value simultaneously.
The massive bitcoin bull run setup
The report argues this is the first institutional cycle where buyers are structurally locked in. CFOs, treasurers, and government programs aren’t day-trading the asset. Many of these groups will pursue btc-denominated yield strategies, not dollar denominated. Regulation is accelerating, not stagnating innovation —the FASB, SEC, and EU MiCA are aligning on rules that broaden the market’s acces to Bitcoin. The report gives a framework that explains how institutions, by mandate or strategy, are reshaping Bitcoin’s ownership base. If the report’s numbers are even directionally right, most allocators will be chasing exposure at far higher prices.
Download the full report here, and follow the authors Juan Leon (@singularity7x), Guillaume Girard (@GuerrillaV2), and Will Owens (@owenswill14) for ongoing updates.
