Bitcoin failed to break through resistance near $98,000 last Wednesday as a supply overhang from recent buyers stifled the recovery, Glassnode analysts claim in a recent market update.
A sustained close above $98,400 is necessary to clear the overhang, Glassnode concluded, adding that until new demand emerges to absorb the supply above $100,000, rallies remain vulnerable to distribution.
The price reached the cost basis for short-term holders at approximately $98,400 before losing momentum, the report states. This rejection mirrors market structure from early 2022 where repeated failures to reclaim key levels led to extended consolidation. Support currently sits near the “true market mean” of $81,100.
Glassnode identified “breakeven selling” as a primary driver of the stall. Investors who purchased Bitcoin recently, likely around or above $100,000, used the rally to exit positions without severe losses. A dense concentration of long-term holder supply also remains above current prices, creating overhead resistance that limits upside potential.
“The recent rejection near the Short-Term Holder cost basis at ~$98.4k mirrors the market structure observed in Q1 2022,” Glassnode stated in its analysis.
Sellers are dominated by the 3-6 month holding cohort. These investors are realizing losses as prices revisit their entry range, reinforcing sell-side pressure. Short-term traders are also taking profits within the 0% to 20% margin, opting for capital preservation over long-term conviction.
Spot markets show modest improvement compared to derivatives. Binance and aggregate exchange flows returned to a “buy-dominant” regime, indicating spot participants are absorbing supply. Selling pressure from Coinbase has also moderated significantly.
Glassnode said that the derivatives markets remain a “ghost town” with shrinking futures volumes. Open interest is churning without volume expansion, suggesting risk recycling rather than new institutional leverage entering the market. Glassnode described the environment as one of “low engagement” where price action is driven by thin liquidity.
Corporate treasury activity remains neutral. Flows are sporadic and event-driven rather than coordinated, contrasting with previous bull runs fueled by aggressive corporate accumulation. Glassnode noted that corporate treasuries are currently acting only as a marginal source of demand.
Header image by Arturo Añez via Unsplash.
